Every speech, statement, minute, and press-conference transcript from the seven Board governors and twelve regional bank presidents — scored for hawkish or dovish tone against a fixed rubric, refreshed weekday evenings.
Each meeting collapses to one combined score: the prepared statement averaged with the chair's same-day press conference. Drift is what the Q&A added on top of the text. Δ vs prior compares this meeting's combined score to the previous meeting's.
The fed funds futures curve, broken into per-meeting probabilities via step-path / FedWatch math. Compared against the latest combined Fed-speak score to surface gaps. as of 2026-11-02.
| Meeting | Implied rate after | Δ at meeting | Cut 100 bp | Cut 75 bp | Cut 50 bp | Cut 25 bp | Hold | Hike 25 bp | Hike 50 bp | Hike 75 bp | Hike 100 bp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-09 | 4.066% | +18.4 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 27% | 73% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2027-01-27 | 4.135% | +6.9 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 72% | 28% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2027-03-17 | 4.276% | +14.1 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 44% | 56% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2027-04-28 | 4.340% | +6.4 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 74% | 26% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2027-06-09 | 4.433% | +9.3 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 63% | 37% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2027-07-28 | 4.450% | +1.7 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 93% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2027-09-15 | 4.477% | +2.7 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 89% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2027-10-27 | 4.460% | -1.7 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 93% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Each speaker's trailing 90-day mean places them in a camp. Widening spreads historically precede dissents at the next FOMC meeting.
Each entry shows the score, a one-sentence rationale extracted from the rubric pass, and the source link.
Logan explicitly advocates at least two additional 25-basis-point rate increases and judges the current rate at least 50 basis points below a modestly restrictive level. She frames persistent…
Collins presents inflation risks as elevated and persistent while saying downside risks to the real economy and labor market are more limited. Most importantly, she explicitly supports the recent…
The speech explicitly argues that a restrictive stance is needed because inflation is broad-based, persistent, and at risk of becoming entrenched. Hammack downplays downside labor-market risk by…
Waller explicitly supports the September rate hike and says the prior policy setting was insufficient to return inflation to target in a timely way. He downplays growth downside risk, says policy…
Jefferson explicitly supported the recent 25 bp rate increase and framed it as needed to keep inflation expectations anchored and restore confidence in achieving 2 percent inflation. While he…
The speech is explicitly and repeatedly prescriptive in favor of tighter policy, including saying policy must become restrictive and estimating at least 50 basis points of additional rate increases…
The speech is mostly about rural economic conditions and community development, but it meaningfully states a monetary-policy stance. Cook emphasizes that inflation has been above target for too long…
Barr explicitly endorses the recent rate increase and says further policy adjustments are likely, with inflation risks elevated and labor-market risks receded. The speech emphasizes inflation being…
Williams presents a clearly hawkish-leaning policy stance: he says employment risks have receded while inflation risks have increased, defends the recent rate hike, and states that another upward…
Cook’s dominant policy message is hawkish: she supported a 25 basis point rate increase to address inflation that remains well above target, and she expects continued inflation pressure from AI…
The speech meaningfully discusses monetary policy and takes an explicitly hawkish stance: inflation is described as stubbornly elevated, price stability is said to need attention, and the speaker…
Although the speech is mainly about housing affordability, Barr gives a substantive monetary-policy view and explicitly supports last week's rate increase. He says inflation is above target,…
Barkin explicitly justifies the recent rate hike and frames inflation as the clear priority over employment, saying inflation risks outweigh maximum-employment risks. He emphasizes broad, persistent…
The speech contains a clear monetary-policy stance despite being mostly about payments: Schmid explicitly supports the FOMC decision to raise rates and tighten policy. He frames inflation as…
Waller is conditionally willing to hold rates if August inflation confirms continued disinflation, but his policy prescription is asymmetric toward additional restraint if inflation disappoints. The…
Although the speech is mainly about financial inclusion and entrepreneurship for people with criminal records, it contains a substantive monetary-policy passage with an explicit policy stance. Barr…
Collins frames the labor market as broadly balanced and near full employment, while emphasizing that inflation remains too high and upside inflation risks are plausible. The policy prescription is…
The speech is meaningfully about the macro outlook and policy stance, but Barkin avoids prescribing a rate path. He emphasizes resilient growth, low unemployment, and stubborn above-target inflation,…
Cook’s policy stance is clearly hawkish: she says inflation is too high, judges inflation risks above employment risks, and explicitly states she is prepared to raise rates if disinflation does not…
Schmid gives an explicit policy prescription for tighter policy, stating that inflation is too high, demand and investment are strong, and the current stance is not restrictive. He downplays downside…
Schmid gives a clearly hawkish-leaning monetary-policy stance: he argues against looking through supply-driven inflation, stresses that inflation remains too high and broad-based, and says his policy…
Logan explicitly advocates tighter policy, saying modestly higher interest rates would better balance risks, which is a direct prescriptive hawkish stance. She argues inflation is not on track back…
Jefferson frames the current situation as a dual-mandate balancing act, but the prescriptive signal leans hawkish because he emphasizes risks that inflation could become entrenched and says it may be…
Cook presents the current balance of risks as clearly shifted toward inflation, with the labor market and output resilient and employment risks diminished. While she supported holding rates steady…
Williams emphasizes that inflation is still too high and that restoring it to 2 percent is imperative, but he does not advocate further tightening. He says the current policy stance is well…
The speech is scoreable because it directly addresses the macro outlook and monetary policy stance. Waller emphasizes rising core inflation, says his focus will be on inflation unless the labor…
The speech is mainly about monetary-policy transmission and forward guidance rather than a direct current rate-path prescription, so the stance is only mildly hawkish. Waller emphasizes that rapid…
Logan explicitly signals that higher interest rates may be necessary, stating she is 'increasingly concerned that higher interest rates could be necessary later this year to fully restore price…
Hammack explicitly signals that rates may need to rise, stating that 'if recent trends continue, it may soon be appropriate to act' and expressing concern that 'monetary policy may not be…
Bowman describes a moderately restrictive current stance she views as appropriate while looking through temporary energy/tariff inflation, and she explicitly dissented in July 2025 in favor of an…
Each document is scored by Hermes against a fixed rubric. The rubric is reused across scans; the only thing that changes is the doc-type header on the user message — speech vs statement vs minutes vs press-conference transcript.
Per-speaker RSS feeds for governors; per-bank scrapers (RSS, server-rendered HTML, or headless Chromium) for the twelve regional presidents. FOMC docs from the consolidated press feed.
A −2 (very dovish) to +2 (very hawkish) scale. Prompt caching keeps the rubric warm; doc-type header switches per file.
For each new FOMC statement, a separate Hermes pass produces 3–5 bullet diff notes against the previous statement, naming the specific wording shifts that matter.
Speeches alert when |score − 90-day mean| ≥ 1.0 or |z| ≥ 1.5. FOMC docs alert at |Δ vs prior| ≥ 0.5. Email digest is dispatched only when something fires.
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