Every speech, statement, minute, and press-conference transcript from the seven Board governors and twelve regional bank presidents — scored for hawkish or dovish tone against a fixed rubric, refreshed weekday evenings.
Each meeting collapses to one combined score: the prepared statement averaged with Powell's same-day press conference. Drift is what the Q&A added on top of the text. Δ vs prior compares this meeting's combined score to the previous meeting's.
Intraday moves around each FOMC meeting. ES and NQ as price % change with annualized realized vol; ZT as approximate 2y yield Δ in basis points (positive bp = hawkish, derived via duration ≈ 2.0).
| Meeting | Statement window 14:00→14:30 ET |
Same-day close 14:30→16:00 ET |
Next-day close → next 16:00 ET |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P (ES) | Nasdaq (NQ) | 2y yield (Δbp) | S&P (ES) | Nasdaq (NQ) | 2y yield (Δbp) | S&P (ES) | Nasdaq (NQ) | 2y yield (Δbp) | |
| 2026-04-29 | −0.19% | −0.15% | +1.9 bp | +0.34% | +0.47% | +0.6 bp | +1.29% | +1.35% | −3.4 bp |
| 2026-03-18 | −0.10% | −0.10% | −1.3 bp | −0.69% | −0.82% | +7.5 bp | −0.97% | −1.13% | +9.4 bp |
| 2026-01-28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | −0.16% | −0.64% | −1.7 bp |
| 2025-12-10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | +0.16% | −0.42% | −3.6 bp |
The fed funds futures curve, broken into per-meeting probabilities via step-path / FedWatch math. Compared against the latest combined Fed-speak score to surface gaps. as of 2026-05-08.
| Meeting | Implied rate after | Δ at meeting | Cut 100 bp | Cut 75 bp | Cut 50 bp | Cut 25 bp | Hold | Hike 25 bp | Hike 50 bp | Hike 75 bp | Hike 100 bp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 3.616% | -1.6 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 94% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2026-07-29 | 3.602% | -1.5 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 94% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2026-09-16 | 3.610% | +1.0 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 96% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2026-10-28 | 3.571% | -3.9 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16% | 84% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2026-12-09 | 3.647% | +2.7 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 89% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2027-01-27 | 3.635% | -1.2 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 95% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2027-03-17 | 3.691% | +3.1 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 88% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2027-04-28 | 3.731% | +4.0 bp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 84% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Each speaker's trailing 90-day mean places them in a camp. Widening spreads historically precede dissents at the next FOMC meeting.
Seven Federal Reserve Board governors and twelve regional bank presidents. Each card shows the speaker's 90-day mean and a sparkline of their last thirty speech scores (oldest → newest, on the −2…+2 scale).
Each entry shows the score, a one-sentence rationale extracted from the rubric pass, and the source link.
Goolsbee's speech is primarily analytical, exploring how anticipated vs. unexpected productivity growth affects the appropriate policy rate. However, the prescriptive conclusion leans hawkish: since…
Williams presents a balanced dual-mandate framing, noting elevated inflation (3.5% PCE) alongside mixed labor market signals, and explicitly states 'the current stance of monetary policy is well…
Kashkari dissented because he wanted to remove forward guidance implying the next move is a cut, arguing the FOMC should signal equal probability of a hike or cut given inflation risks from the…
Waller signals caution about rate cuts in the near term, noting that underlying inflation is still above 2% and that sequential price shocks (tariffs, then energy) risk embedding higher inflation…
Williams presents a balanced assessment of both sides of the dual mandate, noting mixed labor market signals alongside inflation crosscurrents, and explicitly states 'the current stance of monetary…
Jefferson describes a balanced dual-mandate risk environment—downside risk to employment and upside risk to inflation—and explicitly supports holding rates steady at current levels, which he…
Musalem expresses a preference for holding rates steady 'for some time,' describes the real policy rate as 'in the lower portion of the neutral range' (implying limited room to ease), and emphasizes…
Schmid explicitly states he is 'more focused on the risks to inflation at this time' and argues against looking through the energy price shock, emphasizing that inflation has run above target for…
Williams describes a broadly balanced economic picture with solid growth, a stable labor market, and elevated inflation partly driven by tariffs and energy prices. He characterizes current policy as…
Barkin explicitly frames risks as balanced — both labor market fragility and inflation stalling — and describes the decision to hold rates as prudent given the foggy outlook. He neither signals a…
Paulson emphasizes that inflation remaining above 2% (currently 2.8%) for six years means the Fed has less room to be patient than during the Greenspan era, and she explicitly states she would…
Jefferson explicitly frames the outlook as balanced between downside labor market risk and upside inflation risk, and endorses holding rates steady as 'well positioned to respond to a range of…
Barr explicitly supports holding policy steady while emphasizing inflation persistence risks, elevated core inflation (~3%), rising near-term inflation expectations, and the danger that repeated…
The speech advocates for reducing the Fed's balance sheet, which is a tightening of financial conditions, and explicitly acknowledges its 'contractionary effects for the economy.' While Miran frames…
The speech is predominantly about community development and CRA, but Barr briefly addresses monetary policy, stating he supported holding rates steady and believes 'we may need to keep rates steady…
Collins explicitly favors maintaining 'policy rates at their current, mildly restrictive levels for some time,' citing continued upside inflation risks and no urgency for additional policy…
Williams characterizes monetary policy as 'currently well positioned' and sees tariff effects as temporary and one-off, with inflation expected to return to 2% by 2027. His forward guidance…
Schmid consistently emphasizes that inflation remains too high at near 3%, warns against complacency, and stresses the risks of inflation becoming entrenched. His framing that 'inflation remains too…
Waller dissented in January in favor of a cut and frames the current situation as balanced between holding and cutting, with explicit readiness to cut in March if February labor data disappoints. His…
Barr opens with explicit policy prescriptions: inflation remains elevated at 3%, he sees 'significant' risk of persistent inflation, and states it will 'likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for…
Hammack explicitly supports holding rates steady with patience, noting the funds rate is 'in the vicinity of neutral' and inflation remains 'too high' at 2.8% while having 'moved sideways for more…
Logan supports holding rates steady, expresses greater concern about inflation remaining stubbornly high than about labor market weakness, and suggests current policy may already be near neutral…
Jefferson explicitly frames the current policy stance as 'well positioned to address the risks to both sides of our dual mandate,' supports holding rates steady at the current level (after 175bps of…
Bostic's primary policy prescription is that rates should remain in a 'moderately restrictive' posture to bring inflation back to 2%, noting inflation has been 'too high for too long.' He…
Governor Cook explicitly states that risks are 'tilted toward higher inflation' and supported holding rates steady, emphasizing that inflation has 'stalled stubbornly above our 2 percent goal' and…
Barkin describes an economy that remains resilient with inflation still above target, but frames past rate cuts as 'insurance' for the labor market rather than signaling urgency for further easing or…
Bowman explicitly frames downside labor-market risks as the dominant concern, notes that policy remains 'moderately restrictive,' and signals readiness to cut toward neutral absent a clear…
Jefferson signals that prior rate cuts were appropriate given rising downside employment risks and characterizes current policy as near-neutral, suggesting a patient, data-dependent pause rather than…
Bowman explicitly frames labor market fragility as the dominant risk, argues inflation is near target after stripping out tariff effects, and advocates for preemptive policy easing to 'stabilize and…
This speech is purely introductory remarks at a banking forum, explicitly stating 'I won't be addressing the economy or monetary policy in these brief comments.' The content focuses on the structure…
Each document is scored by Claude Sonnet 4.6 against a fixed rubric. The rubric stays cached across scans; the only thing that changes is the doc-type header on the user message — speech vs statement vs minutes vs press-conference transcript.
Per-speaker RSS feeds for governors; per-bank scrapers (RSS, server-rendered HTML, or headless Chromium) for the twelve regional presidents. FOMC docs from the consolidated press feed.
A −2 (very dovish) to +2 (very hawkish) scale. Prompt caching keeps the rubric warm; doc-type header switches per file. Steady-state cost: about $5–10 a year.
For each new FOMC statement, a separate Claude pass produces 3–5 bullet diff notes against the previous statement, naming the specific wording shifts that matter.
Speeches alert when |score − 90-day mean| ≥ 1.0 or |z| ≥ 1.5. FOMC docs alert at |Δ vs prior| ≥ 0.5. Email digest is dispatched only when something fires.
An open ledger of pipeline gaps and exclusions. Every speaker's mean is computed only from items that DO have a score; this section lists the rest.
Speakers whose latest stored speech is more than 60 days old. Could mean a scraper broke or just that the speaker hasn't posted a transcript-archived speech (TV/podcast appearances are intentionally excluded).
What the pipeline saw but excluded. Each speaker's hawk/dove mean is computed only from items that DO have a score, so it's worth knowing what was deliberately left out.
Free, open, and refreshed weekday evenings. No login, no paywall, no newsletter. Bookmark the dashboard and check in when the committee speaks.